The 84-year-old vanished from her Catalina foothills home near Tucson on February 1, shortly after returning from dinner with relatives, and despite an extensive search effort involving multiple agencies, she has not been found.
Authorities believe she disappeared during a brief early-morning window when her doorbell camera stopped functioning and her pacemaker app ceased transmitting data, raising suspicions that someone interfered with devices before contact occurred.
Former FBI agent Jonny Grusing, who spent decades investigating violent crimes, says his theory relies solely on publicly known details and is intended to prompt new leads from the public rather than challenge official conclusions.
He focused on footage showing a masked figure approaching the home, arguing the person’s actions suggest an attempt to obscure identity while encouraging Guthrie to open the door, possibly by knocking or activating the doorbell.
“The first thing he does is with his glove, and with his glove,” Grusing said. “It doesn’t look like he’s trying to take [the camera] off.
“It looks like he’s trying to cover it with his right hand. And then he looks down, he looks around, and he gets the branches, and he puts the branches up in front of it.
“Is there a chance, since we don’t have audio, that he is either knocking on the door loudly or that he has pressed the ring doorbell, [that] he’s trying to get Nancy to answer the door, and he’s shielding himself from being seen as a masked person, so she will, in her confusion, open the door?”
Grusing argues this behavior is inconsistent with burglary, particularly given the isolated location, suggesting the visitor may have come specifically to confront Guthrie over a grievance rather than to steal property.
Blood discovered on the porch and driveway, combined with no confirmed reports of blood inside the residence, reinforces the idea that any struggle may have occurred outdoors after she stepped outside to meet someone.
Was the gun a fake?
Investigators have explored numerous possibilities, including ransom, yet no confirmed direct demands to the family have surfaced publicly, which Grusing says weakens the theory of a financially motivated kidnapping.
And another detail drawing scrutiny is the firearm worn on the suspect’s chest in a low-cost holster, a setup Grusing described as impractical for real combat use and potentially difficult to operate while wearing gloves.
“So, if the gun’s a prop,” Grusing added. “If he’s shielding himself from being seen, if he’s actually ringing the doorbell or knocking on the door, getting her to come, he wants to confront her about something in my opinion.”
He believes an encounter may have escalated unexpectedly, perhaps after Guthrie recognized the individual, triggering panic and a hurried removal from the scene rather than a preplanned abduction.
The case has drawn nationwide attention partly because Guthrie is the mother of Savannah Guthrie, and officials continue urging residents to review surveillance footage or report suspicious activity from that night.
Grusing stresses he cannot identify a motive, but hopes someone might recall a person expressing anger toward an elderly woman in the area, a clue that could transform speculation into a breakthrough in the search.
